I had initially planned to interview an increasingly well known individual here in the States about the new Transport Security Administration’s (TSA) screening regulations, but as you could well understand, he’s a bit busy just now. Instead, I offer a rather alarming thought about the repercussions of this new act, in effect as of February 1st of this year. In response to past events and a real concern for the safety of passenger flights, the Democratic Party’s majority-run congress during the Bush years commissioned the TSA’s authority into creating a proactive system to help mitigate risk of unauthorized and potentially dangerous cargo co-mingling with passengers and their baggage on commercial flights, both domestic and international. Unfortunately, I am not at liberty to go into detail regarding the program currently established for Indirect Air Carriers (IAC) to become certified pre-screeners of such cargo. If I told you, I’d have to kill you. However, it did start me thinking about the ramifications if these new measures fail to be adopted by the various entities that support the airline industry and the millions of passengers departing from U.S. gateways.

As it now stands, in order for any cargo to be accepted by an airline carrying passengers, various conditions must be satisfied. Among these rules are that (a) the Shipper, and actual location of collection, must be known as per previously established and currently evolving criteria, and (b) the Shipper must accept the airline or third party screener to inspect the cargo as prescribed by the program waiving their right to witness the screening or claim damages for mishandling as a result of the screening. Aside from delays in the scheduled departures of flights due to congestion at the facilities where the screenings are carried out, many of our clientele will outright refuse to have their cultural objects subjected to this type of handling; and therefore, will only have use of more restricted routing and indirect all-cargo freighter services. In 2010, when the screening will apply to 100% of all cargo, airlines may be forced to extend the cut-off time for shipments to be dropped off at the airline cargo terminals in order to keep the departures on schedule. This could also lead to the cancellation of flights or unwillingness on the part of the airline to accept cargo on certain routes. In order not to inconvenience passengers, relatively inexpensive coach fairs could become a thing of the past.

Your average passenger in coach will occupy a seat 17.5” in width with a pitch of 32” (Virgin Atlantic). If you include the wasted space overhead, this translates to about 110 kg weight by volume. On a flight from JFK to LHR, if purchased in advance, that ticket will run you $440 round-trip with a midweek departure and return arrival. Put a piece of cargo with the same volume on the lower deck of that same flight, and the cost to ship one-way over to London would be about half of that, including fuel & security surcharges, and more for the return from London due to the trade imbalance (which is not as big as it used to be). Imagine Virgin having an empty lower deck. What would they have to charge the economy passenger for that previously inexpensive flight in compensation for the empty belly?

Many of us have been gearing-up for these new challenges. There is even a program in the works that will allow our customers to qualify in pre-screening their own property. How it will effect the industry is yet to be determined. Up to now, it’s just another of the many hurdles designed to separate the dedicated from the half-hearted. How much heart I’ll have left at the end of this year, likewise remains to be discovered. I’m sure after Cape Town, my morale and convictions will be fully restored. Long live ICEFAT!

Jonathan Schwartz, Atelier 4